Ken Sugimori Trades at a Discount, and the Desk Has Thoughts on Why
The artist who literally drew the first 151 carries a 0.88x premium across 1,094 cards, and the top of that stack still clears $800.00.
KEY POINTS
- ›Ken Sugimori trades at a 0.88x premium across 1094 tracked cards
- ›Priciest tracked card: Blastoise at $896.06
Ken Sugimori designed the original 151. He is credited on 1,094 cards in our database. And across that body of work, the premium sits at 0.88x. Below water, by the desk's math, for the guy whose sketches became the entire aesthetic of the franchise.
We don't think that's an insult to Sugimori. We think it's a supply story. When you've got 1,094 cards carrying your name, the average gets dragged down by three decades of commons and uncommons that nobody's chasing. The premium is a blended number. The top of the stack tells a different story entirely.
The top of the stack
Blastoise, Base Set, Holo Rare: market at $896.06
Alakazam, Legendary Collection, Holo Rare: market at $849.99
Ninetales, Base Set, Holo Rare: market at $800.00
Shining Gyarados, Neo Revelation, Secret Rare: market at $782.55
Blaine's Charizard, Gym Challenge, Holo Rare: market at $699.99
Typhlosion, Neo Genesis, Holo Rare: market at $699.99
Erika's Venusaur, Gym Challenge, Holo Rare: market at $650.00
Shining Steelix, Neo Destiny, Secret Rare: market at $562.50
That's not a discount shelf. That's eight cards clustered between $562.50 and $896.06, all original-era holos and shinies, all carrying the weight of being the first pictures most of us ever saw of these Pokemon. The 0.88x number is real, but it's measuring the whole Sugimori catalog, not the part collectors actually fight over.
Scoring our own homework
The desk publishes calls and the scoreboard keeps us honest. On the monthly mint alert signal, the 7 day hit rate runs 25% with an average return of +3.2%, climbing to 43% hit rate and +8.3% average return at 30 days, and 45% hit rate with a +67.4% average return at 90 days, though that 90 day bucket is thin: 9 hits out of 20 calls.
On 7 day gainers, hit rate opens at 20% (avg return +0.9%) at the 7 day mark, rises to 38% (avg return +3.8%) at 30 days, and 56% (avg return +15.2%) at 90 days. On 7 day losers, the pattern flips in the way you'd expect from mean reversion: 45% hit rate and -4.2% average return at 7 days, 57% hit rate and -8.4% average return at 30 days, settling to 51% hit rate and -4.8% average return at 90 days.
None of this is a signal to buy or sell Sugimori cards specifically. It's just how the desk's calls have graded out across horizons, and we'd rather show the ugly 20% quarters alongside the 56% ones than cherry-pick.
Numbers from the TickerMint pipeline. Every call is scored publicly on the scoreboard.
