Case Prices Print New Highs While McDonald's Promos Do the Heavy Lifting

New All-Time Highs

Eight lines closed the week at fresh records. Sealed product dominates the list:

• Paldea Evolved Booster Box Case: $2817.19
• Prismatic Evolutions Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Box (Exclusive) Case: $2680.77
• Prismatic Evolutions Booster Bundle Case: $2338.01
• Evolving Skies Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Box Set of 2 (Exclusive): $2196.82
• Twilight Masquerade Booster Box Case: $2161.52
• Surging Sparks Booster Box Case: $2116.92
• Twilight Masquerade Sleeved Booster Pack Case: $1402.84
• Shining Kabutops (1st Edition Holofoil, Neo Destiny): $1399.95

Sealed cases keep climbing while opened product supply keeps shrinking. Not a surprise, just a fact.

Knocking on the Door

Five names sit within half a percent of their own record, all logged on the same day this window:

• Unified Minds Single Pack Blister (Sudowoodo): $99.49, off $99.99 ATH by -0.5%
• Sabrina's Gengar (1st Edition Holofoil): $600.87, off $603.90 by -0.5%
• Rocket's Scyther (Unlimited Holofoil): $85.01, off $85.44 by -0.5%
• Erika's Clefable (1st Edition Holofoil): $81.39, off $81.82 by -0.5%
• Furious Fists Booster Box: $4717.50, off $4742.51 by -0.5%

Movers, Trailing Seven Days

Gainers. Axew - BW16 led at +103.8% ($33.73 to $68.75) on a book of 4 listings. Genesect - BW101 followed at +92.3% ($26.52 to $51.01) with no depth reading available. Pikachu from Base Set is up +78.0% ($7.62 to $13.56) but on 3275 listings, which is about as deep a book as this market gets, so this one is a real market move, not a fluke. Venusaur (Secret Wonders) gained +64.3% on 209 listings. Honedge - 7/12 gained +59.9% on 17 listings. Exeggutor Reverse Holofoil added +58.2% on 25 listings.

Losers. Pikachu Star dropped -35.1% ($3200.00 to $2077.50) on 5 listings, the largest move on the sheet and the thinnest book among the big losers. Dracozolt V (Full Art) fell -33.1% on a much deeper 650 listings, which makes it a more credible read than the headline number suggests. Rayquaza ex (Delta Species) lost -32.7% on 21 listings. Slowpoke Reverse Holofoil fell -32.3% on 258 listings. First Partner Illustration Collection (Series 3) dropped -31.7% on 1517 listings, the deepest book on the loser list. Bianca - 2013 (Yugo Sato) fell -31.7% on just 8 listings. Miraidon - 082 [Staff] lost -27.5% on 19 listings. Silvally GX fell -27.0% on 106 listings. Sprigatito - 076 dropped -25.4% on 378 listings. Metang - 114/162 (Cosmos Holo) lost -25.1% on 67 listings. None of these are on a trajectory to zero, they lagged the tape this week, that's the whole story.

One-Day Spikes

Five names jumped hard in a single session, most with no depth figure reported. Totodile - 5/12 rose +50.0% ($96.66 to $145.00). Celebi - 029 (EX Collector's Carry Tin) rose +39.4%. Entei - SM219 (Prerelease) [Staff] rose +36.6%. Entei Star rose +33.3% on 15 listings, the only one of the group with a book to check. Oshawott - 4/12 rose +29.0%. Treat one-day promo pops with the usual caution: small books move fast in both directions.

Solo-Variant Watch

Three cards flagged for moving alone while their sibling printings sat still, a pattern that usually means a repricing artifact rather than genuine demand. Delinquent - 98a/122 Holofoil rose +115.9% on 28 listings. Voltorb Reverse Holofoil rose +99.8% on 5 listings. Weedle Reverse Holofoil rose +99.6% on 6 listings. All three carry a solo-variant flag: read them as one listing repricing itself, not a market reappraisal.

Artist Premiums

Hot: Asako Ito commands an 11.85x premium across 35 cards. Keiko Fukuyama sits at 3.30x on 20 cards. Susumu Maeya at 2.34x on 10 cards. Kazuaki Aihara at 2.15x on 12 cards. Yuka Morii at 2.13x, but across 195 cards, the widest sample on the hot side.

Cold: "Big Mama" Tagawa trades at a 0.26x discount across 16 cards. Milky Isobe at 0.27x on 22 cards. Kazuo Yazawa at 0.49x on 9 cards. Takumi Akabane at 0.52x on 50 cards. Shin-ichi Yoshikawa at 0.55x on 51 cards.

Track Record

The monthly mint alert signal hit 21% of the time at a seven day horizon (21 of 99), averaging +2.1% when it landed. The seven day gainer signal hit 23% of the time at seven days (21 of 92, average +0.6%) but improved to 44% at thirty days (14 of 32, average +4.3%). The seven day loser signal hit 50% of the time at seven days (57 of 113, average -8.5%) and 44% at thirty days (15 of 34, average +1.0%). The scoreboard keeps its own ledger; this brief just reads it out loud.

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Numbers from the TickerMint pipeline. Every call is scored publicly on the scoreboard.